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AQR: How to use Machine Learning to improve Your Investment Strategy

The folks over at AQR recently wrote a piece on how to use machine learning in stock portfolio construction. Specifically stock portfolio selection and timing. The article is quite technical but do provide some food for thought for less sophisticated investors on how AI can be implemented in an investment strategy.

Here are the key takeaways:

  • The Virtue of Complexity: Machine learning techniques can significantly improve stock selection strategies by capturing ‘nonlinear relationships’ between predictor variables and stock returns. Complex models that incorporate numerous nonlinear factors can outperform simple linear approaches by 50-100% in terms of portfolio performance.
  • Nonlinear Relationships Matter: The relationship between investment signals (like value and momentum) and stock returns is ‘complex and nonlinear’. Traditional linear models miss critical nuanced interactions between different investment signals. By using machine learning techniques to generate nonlinear predictors, investors can develop more sophisticated portfolio allocation strategies.
  • Performance Across Different Signal Sets: The research demonstrated the “virtue of complexity” across three different signal sets: Value and Momentum, Fama-French 5-Factor Model plus Momentum, Defensive-Oriented Signals

In each case, complex models generated substantially higher Sharpe ratios compared to simple linear models, with improvements ranging from 50-100%.

  • Caution Against Indiscriminate Data Mining: While complexity can improve portfolio performance, researchers warn against randomly adding predictor variables. Signal relevance is crucial – Including unrelated or noisy variables can rapidly degrade portfolio performance. The nonlinear predictors must have a meaningful relationship to expected returns.
  • Regularization is Key: To manage the challenges of complex models with many parameters, techniques like ridge regression help identify precise portfolio weights while preventing overfitting. This allows investors to leverage model complexity without sacrificing statistical reliability.

More complex models can better identify true nonlinear relationships and, thus, produce better stock selection strategy performance. […] Our results indicate performance improvements relative to a simple, linear approach in the range of 50-100%, suggesting that machine learning can help to build better stock selection portfolios.

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The above has been prepared by Børsgade ApS for information purposes and cannot be regarded as a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security. Nor can the information etc. be regarded as recommendations or advice of a legal, accounting or tax nature. Børsgade cannot be held liable for losses caused by customers’/users’ actions – or lack thereof – based on the information in the above. We have made every effort to ensure that the information in the above is complete and accurate, but cannot guarantee this and accept no liability for errors or omissions.

Readers are advised that investing may involve a risk of loss that cannot be determined in advance, and that past performance and price development cannot be used as a reliable indicator of future performance and price development. For further information please contact info@borsgade.dk

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