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Aswath Damodaran: DeepSeek crashes the AI Party

In his recent article, NYU professor Aswath Damodaran discusses the disruptive entry of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, into the artificial intelligence (AI) landscape and its implications for the broader AI narrative.

DeepSeek challenges the prevailing AI paradigm by offering a low-cost alternative to traditional AI development, which relies heavily on expensive computing infrastructure and vast data resources. This development has sparked significant market reactions and raised questions about the future of AI investments and products and serves as a reality check for the AI industry. It also emphasizes the need for nuanced discussions about market segmentation and investment strategies within the evolving AI ecosystem.

Key Takeaways:

  • DeepSeek’s Disruptive Approach:
DeepSeek developed an AI model using less powerful chips and smaller datasets, relying on rule-based logic to fill data gaps. This contrasts sharply with the dominant AI narrative that requires massive investments in supercomputing and data centers. Despite its lower-cost approach, DeepSeek has demonstrated competitive performance, even outperforming established models like ChatGPT in some areas.
  • Market Impact:
The introduction of DeepSeek has caused a shakeup in the AI market. Companies heavily invested in AI infrastructure, such as Nvidia, have seen significant declines in valuation due to concerns about reduced demand for high-end chips and data centers. Conversely, companies focused on low-cost AI solutions may benefit from this shift.
  • Dual Pathways for AI Development:
DeepSeek’s entry highlights two potential pathways for AI: a “low-intensity” market with commoditized, low-cost solutions and a “high-intensity” market requiring significant investments for premium products. The former is likely to attract more competitors but may lead to lower margins, while the latter could remain more exclusive and profitable.
  • Challenges and Controversies:
DeepSeek’s development has raised legal and political issues. OpenAI has accused it of unlawfully using proprietary data, and its Chinese origin introduces geopolitical complexities. Additionally, while its cost-effective model is appealing, questions remain about scalability and applicability across all AI use cases.
  • Reassessment of the AI Narrative: Damodaran argues that DeepSeek’s emergence forces a reevaluation of the existing AI story, exposing vulnerabilities in the high-cost model. It suggests that much of the consumer-facing AI market may lean toward affordable or free solutions rather than transformative premium offerings.

In many ways, DeepSeek confirms a long-standing suspicion on my part that most AI products and services that we will see, as consumers and even as businesses, fall into the “that’s cute” or “how neat” category, rather than into the “that would change my life”.

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