Bill Nygren: Trees don’t grow (that high) to the sky

In this Q2 2024 update to investors, Bill Nygren and the team at Oakmark Fund give their perspective on the current growth stock dominated market environment. They remain convicted in their value approach despite short-term underperformance compared to growth indexes. Here is a short summary of the key points:

  • Growth stocks, especially giant cap tech companies, significantly outperformed value stocks in the first half of 2024. The Oakmark Fund, a value-oriented fund managed by Harris Associates, underperformed the S&P 500 by 9 percentage points.
  • The Oakmark team believes the current wide valuation gap between growth and value stocks is unsustainable. They draw comparisons to the dotcom bubble in 2000 and expect mean reversion over time, potentially accelerated by corporate actions like share buybacks and issuances.
  • The Oakmark Fund’s portfolio is heavily tilted towards value stocks, with an average forward P/E of 11 compared to 15 for the Russell 1000 Value index and 21 for the S&P 500. They see this as an attractive opportunity despite recent underperformance.
  • To no big surprise, they maintain a long-term, value-oriented investment philosophy. While acknowledging the fund looks wrong in the short-term based on recent growth stock momentum, the managers express excitement about the portfolio’s low relative valuations and expect this to lead to outperformance in the future, as seen after previous bubbles deflated.

For high-priced growth stocks to continue outperforming, they must either maintain their growth rates long into the future or maintain their high relative P/E ratios. Oakmark uses a longer time horizon than most value investors, but we won’t underwrite either above-average growth or an above-average P/E beyond seven years. Our belief that many growth stocks today are fully valued could be proven wrong if these businesses can sustain their advantage for longer than businesses have in past technology transformations.

Share the news

Disclaimer of liability

The above has been prepared by Børsgade ApS for information purposes and cannot be regarded as a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security. Nor can the information etc. be regarded as recommendations or advice of a legal, accounting or tax nature. Børsgade cannot be held liable for losses caused by customers’/users’ actions – or lack thereof – based on the information in the above. We have made every effort to ensure that the information in the above is complete and accurate, but cannot guarantee this and accept no liability for errors or omissions.

Readers are advised that investing may involve a risk of loss that cannot be determined in advance, and that past performance and price development cannot be used as a reliable indicator of future performance and price development. For further information please contact info@borsgade.dk

You might also find this interesting:

Bill Ackman: 2025 Annual Investor Presentation

In his 2025 Annual Investor Presentation, Bill Ackman provides his view on Pershing Square Holdings (PSH) strategic roadmap. Bill also shares his in depth thoughts on the portfolio and key business developments in the companies he owns such as Nike, Brookfield and Uber.

Terry Smith: The Core Attributes of A Great Investment

In this interview, British investing icon Terry Smith, the manager of the UK’s largest stock fund Fundsmith, shares his lessons after a lifetime of investing. Terry delves into the skills, personality traits, and principles that propelled him from humble beginnings to the top of the investing world.

Aswath Damodaran: DeepSeek crashes the AI Party

In his recent article, NYU professor Aswath Damodaran discusses the disruptive entry of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, into the artificial intelligence (AI) landscape and its implications for the broader AI narrative.

Cliff Asness: Get Your Expectations in Line With Reality

In this article, AQR assess the assumption built into today’s market and what that likely will mean for forward returns. These insights aim to guide investors in setting realistic medium-term (5-10 years) expectations while emphasizing the importance of valuation discipline and diversification in navigating compressed risk premia across asset classes.