Guy Spier: Defy your Urge to Rebalance
In this interview, Guy Spier explains that in a randomly selected portfolio held over a long period, most returns come from a few big winners, while many stocks do little or lose value.
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In this Q2 2024 update to investors, Bill Nygren and the team at Oakmark Fund give their perspective on the current growth stock dominated market environment. They remain convicted in their value approach despite short-term underperformance compared to growth indexes. Here is a short summary of the key points:
For high-priced growth stocks to continue outperforming, they must either maintain their growth rates long into the future or maintain their high relative P/E ratios. Oakmark uses a longer time horizon than most value investors, but we won’t underwrite either above-average growth or an above-average P/E beyond seven years. Our belief that many growth stocks today are fully valued could be proven wrong if these businesses can sustain their advantage for longer than businesses have in past technology transformations.
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