By
Borsgade
The hedge fund Bridgewater, headed by Ray Dalio, has just published an updated analysis of interest rates in the US. Bridgewater has been one of the most respected macro investors for decades, and their analysis therefore provides a unique insight into their assessment of interest rates.
The report is (admittedly) a bit on the technical side, but they basically base the analysis and their conclusion on six “guideposts”. Based on their analysis, they conclude:
We’re more likely to see inflation level out at its current rate rather than continue to decline[…]. This would push the Fed to continue tightening and, with a short pause and return toward easing being priced in, could come through the form of either rate rises or holding rates at high levels, as shown in the chart on the right. This makes assets especially vulnerable to another round of tighter policy.
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