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Borsgade
In a recent interview, Howard Marks argues that economic forecasting offers little value to investors. He notes that even top investors like Warren Buffett steer clear of relying on economic or market predictions when making decisions. Buffett instead stresses the importance of focusing on information that is both significant and knowable, acknowledging that while understanding the economy is essential, precise forecasting is unattainable.
Howard also points out that most investors have only average knowledge, which is already factored into stock prices. To outperform, one would need insights beyond the average—a rare feat. As a result, successful investors prioritize factors other than macroeconomic forecasts.
You can only outsmart the market if you have an above-average forecast in terms of accuracy, and almost nobody does. So I’m not involved in macro forecasting. Buffett is not involved in macro forecasting.
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