Aswath Damodaran: Globalization Backlash
April 1, 2025
In his recent article, NYU professor Aswath Damodaran shares his thoughts on how politics, globalization, and disruption has changed the investing landscape.
Howard Marks: I don’t want to be the Parachute Ejector with a 98% success rate
-
By Borsgade
- - Published
In the latest Oaktree ‘Insight’, Howard Marks and Annie Duke discuss the importance of intellectual humility and the need to consider alternative outcomes when making decisions. Marks argues that most people focus on their expected outcome and neglect the potential for negative consequences. He calls for a cautious approach that highlights the need to consider the worst-case scenario and ensure it can survive.
And I think that you have to have a sense for whether there are outcomes that you can’t survive. Annie mentioned the importance of expected value and calculating the expected value of something is one of the first decision tools we learn.
You multiply each outcome by its probability and then you get a weighted outcome, which is considered the expected outcome. […] And what do you do if the expected outcome is very good, but the possible outcome, under some adverse cases, is not survivable? Then what do you do?
You know, I always say that I don’t want to be the skydiver who was successful 98% of the time. That skydiver has a very, very high expected value, but it’s not a role for me. So what if I’m wrong, really, is a big help.
Share the news
Disclaimer of liability
The above has been prepared by Børsgade ApS for information purposes and cannot be regarded as a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security. Nor can the information etc. be regarded as recommendations or advice of a legal, accounting or tax nature. Børsgade cannot be held liable for losses caused by customers’/users’ actions – or lack thereof – based on the information in the above. We have made every effort to ensure that the information in the above is complete and accurate, but cannot guarantee this and accept no liability for errors or omissions.
Readers are advised that investing may involve a risk of loss that cannot be determined in advance, and that past performance and price development cannot be used as a reliable indicator of future performance and price development. For further information please contact info@borsgade.dk
You might also find this interesting:
Bill Nygren: A Modern Approach To Value Investing
March 28, 2025
In this interview, Bill Nygren reflects on his career mistakes and lessons learned. These insights highlight the importance of balancing conviction with caution in investing and the need for value investors to adapt their strategies to include companies with significant intangible assets.
Howard Marks: Value matters more than quality
March 28, 2025
In this interview, Howard Marks shares his investment philosophy and lessons learned over his 55-year career, including contrarian investing, value versus quality and the inevitable market cycles.
Mohnish Pabrai: The Boom-Bust Mental Model
March 28, 2025
In this interview at the 2025 MOI Global, Mohnish Pabrai shares insights on his investment philosophy and current market perspectives. The conversation covers various industries and investment approaches, with particular focus on cyclical businesses and special situations.