By
Borsgade
In the latest Oaktree ‘Insight’, Howard Marks and Annie Duke discuss the importance of intellectual humility and the need to consider alternative outcomes when making decisions. Marks argues that most people focus on their expected outcome and neglect the potential for negative consequences. He calls for a cautious approach that highlights the need to consider the worst-case scenario and ensure it can survive.
And I think that you have to have a sense for whether there are outcomes that you can’t survive. Annie mentioned the importance of expected value and calculating the expected value of something is one of the first decision tools we learn.
You multiply each outcome by its probability and then you get a weighted outcome, which is considered the expected outcome. […] And what do you do if the expected outcome is very good, but the possible outcome, under some adverse cases, is not survivable? Then what do you do?
You know, I always say that I don’t want to be the skydiver who was successful 98% of the time. That skydiver has a very, very high expected value, but it’s not a role for me. So what if I’m wrong, really, is a big help.
Share the news
The above has been prepared by Børsgade ApS for information purposes and cannot be regarded as a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security. Nor can the information etc. be regarded as recommendations or advice of a legal, accounting or tax nature. Børsgade cannot be held liable for losses caused by customers’/users’ actions – or lack thereof – based on the information in the above. We have made every effort to ensure that the information in the above is complete and accurate, but cannot guarantee this and accept no liability for errors or omissions.
Readers are advised that investing may involve a risk of loss that cannot be determined in advance, and that past performance and price development cannot be used as a reliable indicator of future performance and price development. For further information please contact info@borsgade.dk
In his 2025 Annual Investor Presentation, Bill Ackman provides his view on Pershing Square Holdings (PSH) strategic roadmap. Bill also shares his in depth thoughts on the portfolio and key business developments in the companies he owns such as Nike, Brookfield and Uber.
In this interview, British investing icon Terry Smith, the manager of the UK’s largest stock fund Fundsmith, shares his lessons after a lifetime of investing. Terry delves into the skills, personality traits, and principles that propelled him from humble beginnings to the top of the investing world.
In his recent article, NYU professor Aswath Damodaran discusses the disruptive entry of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, into the artificial intelligence (AI) landscape and its implications for the broader AI narrative.
In this article, AQR assess the assumption built into today’s market and what that likely will mean for forward returns. These insights aim to guide investors in setting realistic medium-term (5-10 years) expectations while emphasizing the importance of valuation discipline and diversification in navigating compressed risk premia across asset classes.
