By
Borsgade
At the Oaktree Conference 2024 (just released online, but held back in April 2024), Howard Marks highlighted a shift in the economic environment from a period of ease for business, finance, and investing to one of increased normalcy. He suggested that this transition could lead to slower economic growth, reduced profit margins, and decreased investor optimism.
Howard also noted that borrowing costs are expected to rise, making leverage less effective and financing more challenging. He cautioned against relying on past strategies that thrived during times of declining and ultra-low interest rates, as they may not be as successful in the future.
The investment environment and the starting point has a huge impact on the success of specific strategies. I believe strongly that the strategies that produce superior performance in the period of declining and ultra low low rates may not be the ones that do so in the years ahead, or certainly not to the same extent.
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