Guy Spier: Defy your Urge to Rebalance
In this interview, Guy Spier explains that in a randomly selected portfolio held over a long period, most returns come from a few big winners, while many stocks do little or lose value.
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In his recent memo, Howard Marks explores the concept of “Mr. Market,” a metaphor introduced by Benjamin Graham to describe the stock market’s erratic behavior. Marks discusses the market’s tendency to miscalculate asset values due to emotional swings between optimism and pessimism.
He reflects on the recent weeks market volatility, including the large drop in Japan, highlighting how psychological factors, rather than fundamental changes, often drive price fluctuations. Howard emphasizes the importance of rational analysis over emotional reactions in investment decisions and advises investors to capitalize on market miscalculations by buying undervalued assets and selling overvalued ones, rather than being swayed by the market’s irrational behavior.
Here are the key takeaways:
See Mr. Market’s overreactions for what they are and accommodate him, selling to him when he’s eager to buy regardless of how high the price is, and buying from him when he desperately wants out.
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