By
Børsgade
In this July 2024 letter to shareholders, Kurt Kara and his team behind Maj Invest Value provide their quarterly portfolio update.
They give an update on the macro environment and portfolio changes during the quarter (in Danish).
Here’s the key take-aways on the macro front:
The Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at a 23-year high of 5.25-5.50% due to disappointing inflation data, delaying any rate cuts until at least the second half of the year.
Despite a slight rise in inflation, the Fed sees no need for further rate hikes, reflecting a balanced risk assessment towards full employment and controlled price increases. This announcement positively impacted the market, boosting global stocks.Global trade is expected to more than double this year as inflation decreases and a strong U.S. economy drives activity.
OECD, IMF, and WTO predict significant recovery in global trade flows after a downturn in 2023 caused by high prices, rising interest rates, and weak demand. The OECD forecasts a 2.3% increase in global trade this year and 3.3% in 2025, while the IMF anticipates a 3% growth in trade volumes in 2024. This optimistic outlook has also strengthened the U.S. dollar against major currencies like the Euro and Yen.
(NB: Translation from Danish by Borsgade)
In the second quarter, three portfolio adjustments were made. The Japanese real estate company Daito Trust Construction was completely sold out of the portfolio. Additionally, the American retail chain Tractor Supply Co. and the Canadian gold mining company Barrick Gold were fully divested.
The proceeds were used, among other things, to establish new positions in the American gold mining company Newmont Mining and the American health insurance company Elevance Health. Furthermore, a new position was established in the American logistics giant United Parcel Services (UPS).
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