Search
Get in touch!
Linkedin X-twitter Envelope

Michael Mauboussin: Everything is a DCF Model

In this article, Michael Mauboussin argues that whenever investors value a stake in a cash-generating asset, they are essentially using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, whether explicitly or implicitly. This concept applies broadly across various asset classes and investment strategies. Although few investors explicitly use DCF models all the time, keeping the drivers of the model in mind is essential for understanding and evaluating investments across various asset classes.

Based on this conclusion, Michael introduces the mantra “everything is a DCF model”.  He explains that the intrinsic value of an asset is determined by the present value of its future cash flows. This principle applies to a wide range of investments, including stocks, bonds, real estate, and private equity. Even when investors use shortcuts or heuristics for valuation.

Here are the Key takeaways:

  • Michael addresses several reasons why DCF models are not more widely used, including: The general efficiency of public markets in valuation, the sensitivity of DCF models to small changes in assumptions and the prevalence of comparative valuation methods.
  • Despite its limitations, the value of any cash-generating asset is fundamentally based on the present value of its future cash flows, making DCF models universally applicable.
  • Understanding DCF principles is crucial for effective valuation and investment decision-making, even when using other valuation methods or heuristics.
  • Investors should focus on assessing the expectations embedded in current market prices rather than trying to determine exact values using DCF models.

The value of an asset that produces cash is the present value of the cash flows it generates over its life. Few investors explicitly use a DCF model all the time, but it is useful to keep the drivers of the model in mind constantly.

Click here to go to the external source.

Share the news

Disclaimer of liability

The above has been prepared by Børsgade ApS for information purposes and cannot be regarded as a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security. Nor can the information etc. be regarded as recommendations or advice of a legal, accounting or tax nature. Børsgade cannot be held liable for losses caused by customers’/users’ actions – or lack thereof – based on the information in the above. We have made every effort to ensure that the information in the above is complete and accurate, but cannot guarantee this and accept no liability for errors or omissions.

Readers are advised that investing may involve a risk of loss that cannot be determined in advance, and that past performance and price development cannot be used as a reliable indicator of future performance and price development. For further information please contact info@borsgade.dk

You might also find this interesting:

Michael Mauboussin: Drawdowns Are The Unavoidable Cost of Long-Term Investing

June 6, 2025

Michael Mauboussin from Morgan Stanley Investment Management have published a comprehensive analysis examining stock market drawdowns and recovery patterns from 1985 to 2024. The research reveals that even the most successful investments experience severe price declines, with the median stock suffering an 85% drawdown that takes 2.5 years from peak to trough.

The study analyzed over 6,500 companies and found that more than half never recover to their previous highs. Michael’s work demonstrates that large drawdowns are an inevitable feature of equity investing, affecting individual stocks, mutual funds, and even portfolios with perfect foresight.

Thomas Gayner: My Current Take on Novo Nordisk

June 6, 2025

In his interview, Tom Gayner, CEO of Markel Group, reflects on investment principles shaped by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, and offers a detailed assessment of Novo Nordisk. Gayner praises Novo Nordisk for its business quality, global leadership in diabetes treatment, and strong growth trajectory. He credits the company’s disciplined management and innovation in pharmaceuticals as exemplary, aligning with his own standards of long-term value creation.

Michael Mauboussin: Put Expected Value In Your Valuation Toolkit

May 21, 2025

In this article, Michael Mauboussin explores how investors can generate excess returns by focusing on the gap between price and value, emphasizing the practicalities and psychology of expected value in investment decisions. He explains that while price is observable, value is inherently probabilistic, requiring careful estimation of possible payoffs and their probabilities.

The paper covers the challenges of modeling uncertainty, the importance of considering both probabilities and payoffs, the psychological hurdles investors face (like loss aversion), and best practices for applying these concepts across asset classes.

Bill Ackman: Success is Not A Straight Line Up

May 21, 2025

In the 2025 UBS Berkshire Hathaway Fireside Chat, Bill Ackman and Ryan Israel from Pershing Square Capital discuss investment philosophy, market volatility, the impact of tariffs and geopolitics, and lessons from Warren Buffett.

The conversation covers how to identify durable, high-quality businesses, the importance of long-term thinking, and the evolving landscape for activist investing. Ackman shares personal reflections on resilience, mentorship, and the role of free speech, while both speakers provide practical advice for young investors and fund managers.